Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

22 0x22ea…8ce0 crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$3 (-4%) realized +$1 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-11.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-1.8%	-11.1%	50%	50%	-8.3%
≤30d	4	-1.8%	-11.1%	50%	50%	-8.3%
≤90d	4	-1.8%	-11.1%	50%	50%	-8.3%
all	4	-1.8%	-11.1%	50%	50%	-8.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.1%	50%	-8.3%
10%	-19.6%	50%	-17.1%
15%	-27.4%	50%	-25.1%
20%	-34.5%	50%	-32.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$1

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	1¢	0¢	$5	$1	−$4 (-85%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 16	$31	+$38	+122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 16	$36	−$36	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$9	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $177.50 · 12 history records