Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22f0…e822 other 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 245L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 26% −$18
politics 7% −$12
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage135d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $535 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $228 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $136 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $160 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $383 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $616 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $700 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $400 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $286 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $222 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $342 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 5h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 6h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 11h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 12h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 18h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 20h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 20h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 21h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 24h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 26h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 27h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 29h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 30h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 31h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 42h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 3d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.28 · official $59.28 (match) · 1387 history records