Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22f2…6329 crypto 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$222 (+2%) realized +$236 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%107W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$76
world 17% +$42
politics 3% −$18
finance 0% +$55
tech 0% −$9
culture 0% −$10
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.7% -5.3% 73% 53% -10.5%
≤30d 15 +4.7% -5.3% 73% 53% -10.5%
≤90d 15 +4.7% -5.3% 73% 53% -10.5%
all 180 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 47% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 47% -9.1%
10% -22.7% 36% -17.8%
15% -30.2% 21% -25.7%
20% -37.0% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$236
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses107 / 73
Open positions5
Markets (closed)180 / 185
History coverage197d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $130 $192 +$62 (+48%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $75 $14 −$61 (-81%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$26 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$41 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $100 −$62 -62%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $200 +$416 +208%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 15 $80 −$68 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8PM ET Jan 15 $96 +$6 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 14 $330 −$45 -14%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 14 $72 +$40 +55%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $90 +$6 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jan 12 $150 −$150 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a White Spoon win season 2 of Culinary Class Wars? Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a Black Spoon win season 2 of Culinary Class Wars? Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 08 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 08 $20 +$55 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 06 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 06 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 06 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 06 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 06 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 06 $15 +$3 +18%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jan 06 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 05 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 05 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 05 $63 −$41 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 05 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 05 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 04 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 03 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 03 $27 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 03 $17 −$9 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 03 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mouvement des Élites Engagées pour l’Émancipation du Bénin (MOELE Jan 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $68 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.53 · official $240.53 (match) · 1022 history records