Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x22f4…89d3
weather · 382 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$89 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$107 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses116 / 258
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)374 / 382
History coverage78d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 374 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$18
14 days+$30
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 8? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 6? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 3? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 7? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 7? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -84%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 14 $0 $0 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $0 +$3 +586%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $22 +$9 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$6 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +829%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$8 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$104
sports 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -8.5% -17.2% 29% 29% -6.8%
≤30d 296 -9.1% -17.8% 26% 26% -7.8%
≤90d 374 -8.8% -17.5% 31% 28% -15.7%
all 374 -8.8% -17.5% 31% 28% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 28% -15.7%
10% -25.4% 26% -23.8%
15% -32.6% 25% -31.1%
20% -39.2% 22% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.68 · official $6.66 (match) · 1012 history records