Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22f5…8f9a world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$17 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$13
other 16% −$3
politics 11% $0
finance 10% +$2
sports 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 29% +1.8%
≤90d 14 +2.7% -7.1% 43% 14% -4.2%
all 44 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 5% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -7.2%
10% -20.2% 5% -16.0%
15% -27.9% 2% -24.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage470d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $4 −$1 -26%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $32 +$15 +46%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $2 +$1 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $24 +$2 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $9 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $47 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $4 $0 -11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 18 $13 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -36%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Apr 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 23 $11 $0 -0%
Solana above $130 on March 21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 21 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $58 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $3 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $4 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $2 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $58 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 51¢ $2 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 51¢ $44 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $18 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $14 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $2 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $0 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $2 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $13 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $13 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $45 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.35 · official $56.35 (match) · 116 history records