Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
22 0x22f5…17a8 other 5 markets active 3d ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+1%) realized −$260 · open +$335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,961per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$7,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$308
crypto 12% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -32.3%
≤30d 1 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -32.3%
≤90d 1 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -32.3%
all 1 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 0% -32.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 0% -38.8%
15% -44.7% 0% -44.7%
20% -50.1% 0% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$619 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$7,105
Realized−$260
Unrealized+$335
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,961
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2,743 $2,519 −$224 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,081 $2,034 −$48 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,030 $1,613 +$583 (+57%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $916 $940 +$24 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,454 −$619 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $155 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $223 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $220 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $442 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $440 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $717 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $324 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $326 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,478 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,178 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,175 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,403 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,239 20d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,158 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,544 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $40 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,105.19 · official $7,115.10 (match) · 39 history records