Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x22fa…0dd9 crypto 155 markets active 19h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%83W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$7
sports 28% −$22
other 18% +$14
politics 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 43% -40.0%
≤30d 42 -2.3% -11.6% 52% 52% -14.6%
≤90d 154 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 46% -11.2%
all 154 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 46% -11.2%
10% -26.8% 40% -19.7%
15% -33.9% 32% -27.5%
20% -40.3% 26% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses83 / 71
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage70d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +55%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $3 +$3 +83%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +76%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +76%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 May 26 $2 +$2 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $4 +$3 +76%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 25 $5 +$3 +54%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 21 $2 +$2 +119%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 21 $3 +$3 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Roberto Carb May 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gustavo Heide vs Jurij Rodionov May 20 $7 +$1 +19%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs David Goffin May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $2 −$1 -27%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $3 +$3 +97%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 May 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $2 +$1 +70%
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert May 19 $1 $0 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2 +$4 +197%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 May 19 $3 +$3 +114%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $4 +$5 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2 +$3 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 17 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 17 $1 $0 +7%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur G May 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 19h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $3 4d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $2 6d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2 6d
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $2 13d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 14d
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $3 19d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 61¢ $2 21d
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $3 21d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $3 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 56¢ $4 22d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $2 22d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $2 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 22d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 43¢ $2 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 26d
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $3 26d
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $3 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 64¢ $4 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 27d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 BUY Yes 45¢ $2 27d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $3 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records