Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
22 0x22fe…65ac politics 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,331 (-1%) realized −$1,333 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%25W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,365per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$29
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$114
other 29% +$134
sports 10% −$1,366
world 3% −$4
culture 2% −$1
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +6.8% -3.4% 15% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 78 +3.9% -6.0% 12% 8% -10.1%
all 132 +1.3% -8.3% 19% 14% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 14% -10.2%
10% -17.1% 14% -18.8%
15% -25.1% 13% -26.6%
20% -32.4% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,891) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$23 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized−$1,333
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses25 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,365
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $281 $282 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,148 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,835 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $5,600 −$7 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,787 −$3 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,018 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $68 +$29 +44%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $65 +$63 +97%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,891 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,465 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $188 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $248 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $430 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $4,414 −$5 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $286 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $303 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $9,557 −$10 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $5,226 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $67 +$58 +86%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $510 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,982 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,413 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,776 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $2,485 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,678 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,209 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $608 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $754 −$1 -0%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 07 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $704 23m
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $705 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $706 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $707 4h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $599 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $600 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $551 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $551 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $670 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $671 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $529 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $530 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $709 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $710 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $708 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $709 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $710 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $711 8d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 8d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $711 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $281 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $870 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $871 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $988 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $989 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $898 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.14 · official $282.14 (match) · 486 history records