Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x2301…78cf sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$689 (+29%) realized +$689 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$809
14 days+$1,345
30 days+$1,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$767
other 44% +$698
world 5% −$120
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +69.5% +53.4% 50% 50% +49.6%
≤30d 20 +80.2% +63.1% 55% 55% +62.2%
≤90d 20 +80.2% +63.1% 55% 55% +62.2%
all 20 +80.2% +63.1% 55% 55% +62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +63.1% 55% +62.2%
10% +47.5% 55% +46.6%
15% +33.2% 55% +32.5%
20% +20.2% 50% +19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +95% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$61 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 32
History coverage10d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$140 +137%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$92 -90%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $31 +$117 +381%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $112 +$117 +105%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026 Jun 22 $50 +$370 +736%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$151 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $132 +$227 +172%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $102 −$52 -51%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$83 +162%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $128 +$451 +352%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $185 18m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a d BUY $66 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $242 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Scotland vs. Brazil end BUY $82 26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $203 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $10 26h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovin BUY $36 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 26h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovin BUY $59 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a d BUY $37 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY $62 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Scotland vs. Brazil end BUY $31 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY $50 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $112 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 41¢ $41 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06- BUY $41 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY $69 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026 BUY 12¢ $50 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Fran BUY $38 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 16¢ $21 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $132 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 55¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records