Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2302…d6d2
sports · 947 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$34,408 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33,734 · open −$599
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,712
Realized−$33,734
Unrealized−$599
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses443 / 490
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$2,836
Open positions21
Markets (closed)933 / 947
History coverage16d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day145.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 21 History 933 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$196
14 days−$43,747
30 days−$33,734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 48¢ 100¢ $296 $622 +$325 (+110%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 53¢ 53¢ $452 $452 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $515 $432 −$83 (-16%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 28¢ 19¢ $89 $61 −$28 (-32%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ 32¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 52¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 82¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 47¢ 49¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner ex-Zero Tenacity 59¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+69%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 47¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? No 83¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 61¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $446 $0 −$446 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $11 +$4 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $17 +$8 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $6 +$4 +65%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $25 +$16 +63%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $8 −$4 -51%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $6 +$10 +165%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $22 −$12 -53%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $16 +$8 +48%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $8 +$5 +57%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $14 +$4 +32%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $4 +$4 +101%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $11 −$1 -7%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $3 +$2 +54%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 −$7 -21%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) Jun 12 $23 +$9 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $263 −$263 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $154 −$31 -20%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $162 −$162 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $16 +$5 +31%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $1 +$2 +152%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $18 +$14 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 +$3 +129%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Landskrona BoIS win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$84 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% −$24,007
other 10% −$10,319
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $27 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 62¢ $1 2h
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 32¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 69¢ $8 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $3 2h
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 64¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $3 3h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 62¢ $13 5h
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 58¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $5 5h
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 60¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $3 5h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 56¢ $2 5h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $15 5h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $1 5h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 60¢ $4 6h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 59¢ $8 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $21 6h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 77¢ $6 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $8 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $7 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $15 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 -4.3% -13.5% 48% 46% -7.5%
≤30d 933 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 46% -24.9%
≤90d 933 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 46% -24.9%
all 933 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 46% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover145.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 46% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 43% -32.1%
15% -28.4% 36% -38.6%
20% -35.5% 30% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,711.72 · official $1,715.55 (match) · 3500 history records