Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2302…e3a0 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$195 (+8%) realized +$220 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$433
7 days+$289
14 days+$289
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$327
sports 9% −$22
crypto 2% −$22
weather 1% −$13
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -20.3% -27.9% 24% 24% +5.0%
≤30d 34 -20.3% -27.9% 24% 24% +5.0%
≤90d 34 -20.3% -27.9% 24% 24% +5.0%
all 34 -20.3% -27.9% 24% 24% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 24% +5.0%
10% -34.8% 24% -5.1%
15% -41.1% 24% -14.2%
20% -46.8% 18% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$40 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized+$220
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)34 / 42
History coverage15d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $529 $517 −$12 (-2%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Chirayu Rana divorced? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 22? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 22? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $412 +$211 +51%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $75 +$123 +164%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $96 −$91 -95%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $152 −$99 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? Jun 22 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool? Jun 22 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? Jun 22 $26 −$22 -87%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $411 −$402 -98%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $139 +$975 +702%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$123 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $535 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $470 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 7¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 1¢ $5 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 80¢ $100 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 20¢ $96 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 74¢ $95 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 45¢ $2 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 31¢ $53 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $53 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $152 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 33¢ $152 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $22 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $310 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 8h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 8h
Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 8h
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 8h
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 8h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 8h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 19h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $3 19h
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $3 19h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 19h
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 19h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $31 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.47 · official $512.57 · 119 history records