Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x2302…5789 other 27 markets active 3d ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
other 31% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 4% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.9% -6.0% 33% 17% -8.7%
≤30d 7 +3.2% -6.6% 29% 14% -8.7%
≤90d 7 +3.2% -6.6% 29% 14% -8.7%
all 27 -6.0% -14.9% 48% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 4% -8.6%
10% -23.1% 0% -17.4%
15% -30.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -37.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.74 per $1 lost it wins $7.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage463d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 +$1 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $13 $0 +4%
Will Mikal Bridges Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 24 $12 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 23 $9 $0 -1%
New Pope in 2025? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 10 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $15 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $19 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 380d
Will Mikal Bridges Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 388d
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F BUY Yes $0 396d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? BUY No 99¢ $2 406d
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? BUY No 96¢ $13 420d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? SELL No 96¢ $10 420d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? SELL No 96¢ $3 420d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? BUY No 94¢ $12 420d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between SELL No 86¢ $4 420d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL No 97¢ $9 421d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 66 history records