Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:00:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2304…24bf weather 280 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$508 (+0%) realized +$492 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%259W / 14L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$609per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$113
14 days+$165
30 days+$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$469
other 1% +$18
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -2.5% -11.8% 97% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 171 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 273 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 1% -9.3%
all 273 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$846) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$50 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$2,938
Realized+$492
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses259 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)273 / 280
History coverage67d
Avg bet$609
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,213 $1,219 +$6 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 21? No 94¢ 94¢ $778 $776 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $335 $343 +$9 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $252 $252 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $148 $150 +$2 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 21 $733 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $823 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 20 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 20 $1,073 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 20 $302 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on June Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $846 +$4 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $954 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 18 $238 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 18 $619 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 18 $1,126 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 17 $1,031 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $326 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $348 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $676 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 16 $1,074 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $559 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $4,710 +$47 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $341 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1,024 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 14 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $266 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 14 $838 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $788 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $161 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 14 $434 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on June Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $346 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $440 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $619 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 69°F or below on June 1 Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 13 $495 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $102 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 13 $1,167 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on June Jun 13 $438 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $221 −$107 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 99¢ $58 17m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $66 33m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 99¢ $9 45m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 99¢ $127 55m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 99¢ $39 55m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 95¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 92¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 94¢ $126 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 93¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 93¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 93¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 93¢ $79 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $190 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 100¢ $215 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 100¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 94¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 91¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 88¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 88¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 88¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 88¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 88¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 88¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 95¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,938.48 · official $2,934.36 (match) · 2597 history records