Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x2307…9378 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$554 (-16%) realized −$698 · open +$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$1,155
14 days−$725
30 days−$725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$775
sports 17% −$10
crypto 12% +$102
world 3% −$91
politics 1% +$407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +72.4% +56.0% 31% 31% -63.5%
≤30d 18 +79.9% +62.8% 39% 39% -40.1%
≤90d 33 +57.7% +42.7% 42% 39% -27.8%
all 33 +57.7% +42.7% 42% 39% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.7% 39% -27.8%
10% +29.1% 30% -34.7%
15% +16.6% 30% -41.0%
20% +5.2% 24% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +75% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$95 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$698
Unrealized+$144
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage62d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 100¢ $207 $351 +$144 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 +$77 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $132 +$98 +74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 −$129 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $225 −$224 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $149 +$68 +46%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $81 +$67 +83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $92 −$91 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $227 −$224 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $138 +$89 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $522 −$479 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $244 +$278 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$152 +165%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 19 $23 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 19 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 19 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 19 $36 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 19 $31 +$41 +131%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 18 $152 −$105 -69%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $49 +$407 +824%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $209 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $210 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $133 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $228 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $229 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $132 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $132 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $225 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $149 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $81 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $92 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $227 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $138 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $43 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $522 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $244 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $244 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $92 8d
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? BUY No 2¢ $23 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $22 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $23 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.71 · official $350.54 (match) · 66 history records