Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x2307…d2a2 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-8%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$20
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$63
sports 14% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -13.4% -21.6% 64% 36% -12.1%
≤30d 70 -13.5% -21.7% 54% 36% -17.2%
≤90d 70 -13.5% -21.7% 54% 36% -17.2%
all 70 -13.5% -21.7% 54% 36% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 36% -17.2%
10% -29.2% 14% -25.2%
15% -36.1% 4% -32.4%
20% -42.3% 3% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Up 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$3 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -75%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$4 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -88%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$5 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $4 $0 +13%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 09 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $35 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $32 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $7 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $12 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $2.05 (match) · 194 history records