Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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23 0x230a…b8aa crypto 1072 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,130 (-3%) realized −$1,099 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%701W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$277est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$686
7 days+$686
14 days+$686
30 days+$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,219
crypto 39% −$657
other 2% +$453
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +133.4% +111.1% 100% 100% +112.4%
≤30d 2 +133.4% +111.1% 100% 100% +112.4%
≤90d 207 +3.7% -6.1% 49% 46% -11.9%
all 1071 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 48% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 48% -13.2%
10% -17.2% 36% -21.5%
15% -25.2% 24% -29.1%
20% -32.5% 14% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$1,099
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses701 / 370
Est. fees paid−$277
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1071 / 1072
History coverage127d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1071 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 63¢ 24¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $240 +$260 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $269 +$426 +158%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $201 −$200 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $31 +$39 +128%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $51 −$39 -78%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $101 +$6 +6%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $384 −$98 -25%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $202 −$15 -7%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $51 +$37 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 30 $101 −$13 -13%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $507 −$124 -24%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $353 +$36 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Madrid Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 29 $10 +$14 +136%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Francisco Comesana Apr 29 $15 −$11 -74%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $51 +$25 +50%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Shanxi Loongs Apr 29 $10 −$3 -34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 29 $32 +$14 +44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $1,097 −$174 -16%
LoL: GIANTX vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $70 −$56 -80%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 29 $280 −$280 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 29 $73 −$27 -37%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Apr 29 $51 −$12 -24%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 29 $56 −$30 -54%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $126 −$30 -24%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $90 −$52 -58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 29 $35 −$25 -72%
Jiujiang: Keegan Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka Apr 29 $10 −$1 -12%
Cagliari: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Federico Cina Apr 29 $5 +$2 +44%
Jiujiang: Giles Hussey vs Jason Jung Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $162 +$68 +42%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $91 +$35 +38%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 28 $20 −$1 -4%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 28 $570 −$13 -2%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $30 +$13 +44%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $5 −$1 -24%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 28 $26 −$1 -3%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Apr 28 $26 +$1 +4%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $297 −$8 -3%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $615 +$24 +4%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 27 $30 +$13 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $50 −$22 -44%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $189 +$35 +19%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $192 −$191 -99%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $100 −$60 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 63¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $138 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 44¢ $66 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 31h
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 58d
Pistons vs. Magic SELL Pistons 100¢ $70 59d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors SELL Raptors 15¢ $11 59d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 66¢ $51 59d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 43¢ $31 59d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL HANJIN BRION 71¢ $107 59d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 66¢ $101 59d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SELL Nuggets 37¢ $121 59d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 54¢ $182 59d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SELL Nuggets 59¢ $166 60d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 71¢ $202 60d
Celtics vs. 76ers SELL Celtics 67¢ $187 60d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 71¢ $202 60d
Knicks vs. Hawks SELL Knicks 100¢ $88 60d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 57¢ $51 60d
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 72¢ $87 60d
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 82¢ $101 60d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 30¢ $61 60d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 24¢ $51 60d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 26¢ $58 60d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 44¢ $102 60d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 37¢ $121 60d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 60¢ $202 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.65 · official $20.24 · 2918 history records