Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x230e…45b4 crypto 1167 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$371 (+5%) realized +$351 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%516W / 843L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day112.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$674
7 days−$602
14 days−$696
30 days−$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$60
sports 17% +$51
other 3% +$40
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 -21.9% -29.3% 26% 25% -23.0%
≤30d 1359 +14.1% +3.3% 38% 36% -6.9%
≤90d 1359 +14.1% +3.3% 38% 36% -6.9%
all 1359 +14.1% +3.3% 38% 36% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 36% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 34% -15.8%
15% -15.6% 32% -24.0%
20% -23.9% 30% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$351
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses516 / 843
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1359 / 1167
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day112.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+49%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 55¢ $80 $61 −$19 (-23%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+149%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -2983%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$5 -6688%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$5 -7792%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$5 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -3564%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$2 -206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -3355%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$6 -5855%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -1705%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -661%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$3 +4812%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$4 -8097%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$3 -5959%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$3 -4150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$5 -9868%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -833%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $81 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 22¢ $20 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $51 8h
Ortenzi vs. Yaneva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 9h
Ortenzi vs. Yaneva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 12h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 50¢ $23 15h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 15h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 15h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 10¢ $1 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $161 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $177 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $40 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $141 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.50 · official $212.76 · 3500 history records