Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x230e…9d9b crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%101W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$13
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 3% -8.7%
≤90d 95 +0.5% -9.0% 99% 1% -8.6%
all 103 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -8.7%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.4%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.43 per $1 lost it wins $12.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses101 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage111d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $105 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $163 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $161 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $158 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $156 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $151 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $147 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $140 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $74 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $109 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $105 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $95 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $103 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $83 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $102 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $6 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $161 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $161 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $163 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $161 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $158 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $156 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $154 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $155 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $152 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $4 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $150 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $151 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $150 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $147 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $145 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $40 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $140 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 93¢ $20 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $119 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.62 · official $108.62 (match) · 211 history records