Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2310…8e53 politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 19% −$1
sports 17% $0
crypto 11% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.0% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage177d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 22 $188 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $188 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $188 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $188 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $187 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $187 $0 +0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $184 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 04 $181 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 31 $179 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $181 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $92 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $92 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $92 16d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $92 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $92 22d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $0 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 27d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $92 28d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 35d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 36d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 41d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $92 41d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 47d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $92 48d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $93 66d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $87 67d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $6 67d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $93 69d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $93 69d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $188 94d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $188 95d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 96d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records