Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2317…a47c
crypto · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$638 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$646 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 2 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$646
7 days−$646
14 days−$646
30 days−$646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Down 33¢ 38¢ $110 $125 +$15 (+14%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 18¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 14¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 29¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $164 −$156 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $289 −$73 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $157 +$65 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $210 −$175 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $265 −$178 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $189 +$163 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $53 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $159 +$39 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$631
politics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 33¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $211 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $222 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -39.6% -45.4% 33% 33% -40.4%
≤30d 15 -39.6% -45.4% 33% 33% -40.4%
≤90d 15 -39.6% -45.4% 33% 33% -40.4%
all 15 -39.6% -45.4% 33% 33% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.4% 33% -40.4%
10% ← realistic here -50.6% 33% -46.1%
15% -55.4% 20% -51.3%
20% -59.8% 13% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.50 · official $132.50 (match) · 99 history records