Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2319…4029 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-20%) realized −$241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$29
sports 29% −$205
politics 10% −$86
tech 7% −$10
world 6% +$11
crypto 2% +$11
culture 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.2% +26.8% 50% 50% +28.5%
≤30d 2 +40.2% +26.8% 50% 50% +28.5%
≤90d 9 -53.6% -58.1% 22% 22% -64.9%
all 46 -35.1% -41.3% 39% 35% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 35% -28.3%
10% -46.9% 22% -35.2%
15% -52.1% 15% -41.4%
20% -56.8% 11% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage577d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$19 +180%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $30 −$28 -92%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-14? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jan 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $20 +$57 +284%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Dec 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 26 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 18 $20 +$16 +81%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Dec 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 13 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $34 +$11 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Nov 18 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Germany vs. Slovakia end in a draw? Nov 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 16 $50 +$18 +37%
Will Albania vs. England end in a draw? Nov 16 $20 −$17 -84%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Nov 12 $20 −$2 -8%
Will West Ham vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Nov 01 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Como win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $10 −$9 -89%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Ousmane Dembélé be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Oct 30 $30 −$29 -95%
Will Lazio vs. Juventus end in a draw? Oct 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? Oct 26 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Alassane Ouattara win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? Oct 26 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Oct 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Sep 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Athletic Bilbao vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Sep 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $50 +$38 +77%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jul 19 $20 +$4 +20%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Jul 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Mar 02 $30 −$28 -95%
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? Mar 02 $88 −$88 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $29 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 35d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 35d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 45d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 45d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 55d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 55d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY No 51¢ $20 77d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 81d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 153d
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 153d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 154d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 156d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 157d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 157d
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 157d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 160d
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 161d
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-10? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 161d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 175d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $57 176d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 56¢ $36 184d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 189d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 193d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 207d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 207d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 207d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records