Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x231c…ef5b other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$2
politics 34% −$2
sports 10% −$17
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 68 -3.7% -12.9% 3% 1% -9.6%
all 80 -7.7% -16.5% 4% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 2% -10.0%
10% -24.5% 2% -18.6%
15% -31.8% 2% -26.5%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×14.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage115d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 21 $84 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $97 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 23d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $44 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $44 29d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 32d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 33d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 57d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 57d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 58d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 58d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $37 58d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $37 58d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $36 59d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $36 59d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 59d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 59d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 59d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 59d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 59d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 59d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 59d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 60d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $42 60d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $42 60d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 60d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $47 60d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 61d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 61d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 242 history records