Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2320…4869 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$325 (+1%) realized −$819 · open +$1,144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$643per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$15,806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days+$187
14 days+$187
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$1,122
crypto 2% −$258
politics 1% −$24
world 1% +$19
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.1% -16.8% 56% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 10 -17.3% -25.1% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 47 -51.6% -56.2% 26% 9% -10.9%
all 49 -51.5% -56.1% 27% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.1% 8% -11.0%
10% -60.3% 8% -19.5%
15% -64.1% 6% -27.3%
20% -67.7% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -67% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$26 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$15,806
Realized−$819
Unrealized+$1,144
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage92d
Avg bet$643
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $7,538 $8,466 +$928 (+12%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $3,893 $4,090 +$197 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $3,232 $3,250 +$18 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,556 +$10 +1%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,437 −$26 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,978 +$83 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,043 +$19 +1%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,406 −$199 -8%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $102 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $92 +$9 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,995 +$333 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $50 −$42 -84%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 27 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $446 +$18 +4%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 02 $290 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $20 −$14 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $28 +$59 +210%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 07 $23 −$21 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $19 +$8 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $15 −$6 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $120 −$25 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $181 +$49 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gran Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gra Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gr Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Mar 26 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $20 +$42 +208%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 20 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 22m
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $500 26m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $72 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $12 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $42 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $295 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $11 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $108 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $64 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $114 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $145 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $128 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 2h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 2h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,806.23 · official $15,806.24 (match) · 291 history records