Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2320…b98b sports 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$219 (+4%) realized +$219 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%196W / 82L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$194
sports 12% +$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.6% -25.5% 53% 35% -10.6%
≤30d 17 -17.6% -25.5% 53% 35% -10.6%
≤90d 104 -5.2% -14.3% 67% 52% -5.2%
all 278 -5.9% -14.8% 71% 53% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 53% -5.8%
10% -23.0% 33% -14.8%
15% -30.4% 14% -23.0%
20% -37.2% 7% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses196 / 82
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)278 / 278
History coverage98d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 278 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $250 +$2 +1%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $9 $0 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $23 +$2 +11%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $8 −$3 -39%
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Ozan Baris Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $12 −$1 -8%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Warriors May 02 $2 +$1 +32%
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 Apr 06 $2 +$1 +45%
CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5 Apr 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Apr 06 $3 −$3 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 06 $1 $0 +22%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $1 $0 +35%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 06 $1 $0 +8%
Devils vs. Canadiens Apr 06 $1 $0 +11%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $3 +$1 +46%
Mirassol FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $1 $0 +2%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $1 $0 +15%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 05 $3 −$2 -80%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 05 $3 −$1 -33%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 05 $1 $0 +17%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? Apr 05 $1 $0 +18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Apr 05 $1 $0 +22%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $1 $0 +6%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $2 $0 +7%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 05 $1 $0 +17%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 05 $1 $0 +49%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $2 $0 +21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 05 $3 $0 +12%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? Apr 05 $1 $0 +29%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 05 $3 +$1 +18%
Copa Colsanitas: Marie Bouzkova vs Panna Udvardy Apr 05 $6 −$1 -16%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Moise Kouame vs Ugo Humbert Apr 05 $1 $0 +9%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Starodubtseva Apr 05 $1 $0 +19%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Apr 05 $1 $0 +35%
Will FC Universitatea Cluj win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -88%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 40m
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 51m
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 51m
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 11h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 11h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 92¢ $30 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 12h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 844 history records