Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x2320…f680 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%76W / 1L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$29
14 days−$28
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$48
other 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.8% -27.4% 80% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 19 -5.1% -14.1% 95% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 61 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 77 -1.1% -10.5% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 36% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$30 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses76 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage117d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $336 $336 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $336 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $335 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $335 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $364 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $364 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $363 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $363 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $363 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $362 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $362 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $361 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $361 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $360 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $360 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $359 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $359 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $359 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $358 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $358 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $357 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $357 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $357 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $358 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $355 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $354 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $353 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $350 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $288 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $352 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $351 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $351 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $351 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $348 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $347 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $336 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $336 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $335 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $335 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $364 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $364 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $363 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $363 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $363 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $362 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $362 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $361 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $361 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $360 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $360 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $359 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $359 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $4 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $359 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $358 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $358 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $4 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $357 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $357 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $357 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $356 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $358 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.26 · official $343.26 (match) · 156 history records