Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2326…b627 sports 469 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,465 (-16%) realized −$2,358 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%285W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day160.6pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days−$203
14 days−$240
30 days−$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$413
crypto 6% −$9
other 1% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 -16.0% -24.0% 60% 60% -12.0%
≤30d 508 -15.4% -23.5% 56% 48% -14.0%
≤90d 508 -15.4% -23.5% 56% 48% -14.0%
all 508 -15.4% -23.5% 56% 48% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover160.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 48% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 37% -22.2%
15% -37.5% 20% -29.7%
20% -43.6% 9% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized−$2,358
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses285 / 223
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions13
Markets (closed)508 / 469
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day160.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 76¢ 100¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
ITF Klosters: Niklas Schell vs Manuel Plunger Niklas Schell 78¢ 99¢ $51 $64 +$14 (+27%)
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Valentina Steiner 72¢ 76¢ $50 $54 +$3 (+6%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 65¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Oliver Crawford 78¢ 76¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $100 $42 −$58 (-58%)
ITF San Gregorio: Anastasia Abbagnato vs Ruien Zhang Anastasia Abbagnato 81¢ 60¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
ITF Taipei: Mao Mushika vs Yu-Chen Lin Yu-Chen Lin 66¢ 42¢ $50 $32 −$19 (-37%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 34¢ 47¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 51¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
ITF Bolszewo: Anastasija Adeikyte vs Nika Hurkacz Anastasija Adeikyte 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Wuning: Meiqi Guo vs Hina Inoue Jun 17 $9 −$9 -95%
Hamburg European Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Doumbia/Reboul Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Wuning: Maria Kalyakina vs Hina Inoue Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Angelina Wirges vs Tea Kovacevic Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Monastir: Eva Lopez vs Nahjime Dho Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Takasaki: Kanon Sawashiro vs Ayano Shimizu Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Chisinau: Laslo Djere vs Timofey Skatov Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Cervia: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Guido Justo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Vicenza: Lautaro Midon vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Centurion: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Trevor Svajda Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Julie Struplova vs Darya Astakhova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Grado: Verena Meliss vs Denisa Zoldakova Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Estepona: Jordina Font vs Berta Bonardi Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Kosice: Peter Fajta vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Wuning: Hikaru Sato vs Wushuang Zheng Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$6 -16014%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Wichita: Barakat Oyinlomo Quadre vs Kaya Moe Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -8562%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Yujia Huang Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Estepona: Nahia Berecoechea vs Stephanie Judith Visscher Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Vicenza (Doubles): Nam/Niklas-Salminen vs Jung/Uesugi Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Portoroz: Carlota Martinez Cirez vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Pelham: Alicia Herrero Linana vs Dana Guzman Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
ITF Wuning: Daria Zelinskaya vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Wichita: Carolyn Ansari vs Xin Tong Wang Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Kayla Day Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Jozef Kovalik Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ergi Kirkin vs Vuk Radjenovic Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Little Rock: Andres Martin vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Vicenza: Remy Bertola vs Moez Echargui Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Jana Otzipka vs Eva Vedder Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $51 +$23 +46%
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 65¢ $51 26m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 78¢ $51 26m
ITF San Gregorio: Anastasia Abbagnato vs Ruien Zhang BUY Anastasia Abbagnato 81¢ $50 45m
ITF Klosters: Niklas Schell vs Manuel Plunger BUY Niklas Schell 78¢ $51 53m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 76¢ $50 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 61¢ $51 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 68¢ $51 1h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann BUY Valentina Steiner 72¢ $51 1h
ITF Samobor: Antonio Voljavec vs Matic Dimic BUY Antonio Voljavec 77¢ $50 2h
ITF Bolszewo: Anastasija Adeikyte vs Nika Hurkacz BUY Anastasija Adeikyte 62¢ $51 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 71¢ $51 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang BUY Junhan Zhang 58¢ $51 2h
ITF Haskovo: Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Oana Georgeta Simion BUY Ilinca Dalina Amariei 72¢ $51 3h
ITF Taipei: Mao Mushika vs Yu-Chen Lin BUY Yu-Chen Lin 66¢ $51 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 68¢ $51 7h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 64¢ $51 7h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Rinko Matsuda 76¢ $51 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 13¢ $5 9h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $5 9h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee BUY Erika Sema 70¢ $51 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 54¢ $5 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $5 10h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 74¢ $5 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $5 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 13¢ $5 12h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 69¢ $51 13h
ITF Tulsa: Enzo Aguiard vs Blake Ellis BUY Blake Ellis 72¢ $51 14h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 59¢ $51 16h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 68¢ $51 17h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 65¢ $51 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.87 · official $397.78 · 3500 history records