Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x232f…f8b7 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$6
other 24% −$2
politics 19% $0
tech 11% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 3% −$4
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -2.8% -12.0% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 12% 0% -11.6%
all 37 -5.4% -14.5% 11% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -11.0%
10% -22.6% 0% -19.5%
15% -30.1% 0% -27.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage259d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $41 −$6 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $34 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $4 −$4 -83%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Nov 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $2 −$1 -77%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 24 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $14 −$1 -6%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $8 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $34 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $35 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $44 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $44 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $34 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $45 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 30d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 188d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 199d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 244d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 244d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 SELL No 80¢ $14 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records