Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x2330…ed99 weather 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$568 (+10%) realized +$551 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$736now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 31% −$119
other 19% +$344
world 17% +$161
weather 13% −$76
sports 11% $0
tech 7% +$20
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.2% -9.7% 72% 49% -2.8%
≤30d 39 -0.2% -9.7% 72% 49% -2.8%
≤90d 39 -0.2% -9.7% 72% 49% -2.8%
all 39 -0.2% -9.7% 72% 49% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 49% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 38% -12.1%
15% -26.2% 26% -20.6%
20% -33.5% 15% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$50 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$736
Realized+$551
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage5d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 55¢ 73¢ $368 $489 +$121 (+33%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $217 $180 −$37 (-17%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 10¢ $94 $24 −$71 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 20 $38 +$1 +3%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 20 $41 +$19 +46%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 20 $25 +$15 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$37 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 20 $394 −$238 -60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $235 +$165 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $44 +$11 +26%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $109 +$91 +83%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $56 −$24 -42%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $61 −$59 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $104 +$28 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $119 −$119 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $159 +$39 +25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $76 +$13 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $241 +$65 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $147 +$53 +36%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $346 +$16 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $81 +$6 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $184 +$16 +8%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $110 +$12 +11%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $54 +$17 +32%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $159 +$121 +76%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $160 −$21 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$65 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $243 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $89 +$15 +17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $126 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $294 +$3 +1%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 33¢ $224 1h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 3h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $96 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 30¢ $237 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 66¢ $328 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 30¢ $118 4h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes 46¢ $20 4h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? SELL No 99¢ $59 4h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 27¢ $67 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 18h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 18h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 43¢ $38 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 11¢ $54 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 74¢ $238 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 71¢ $324 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 21h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 20¢ $80 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 60¢ $300 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $235 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $32 27h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 27h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $32 28h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $109 28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 1¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $735.85 · official $735.85 (match) · 123 history records