Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2331…a53d sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$27
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$22
other 39% +$22
crypto 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.2% -20.5% 44% 44% -29.4%
≤30d 28 +2.7% -7.0% 54% 54% -14.0%
≤90d 28 +2.7% -7.0% 54% 54% -14.0%
all 28 +2.7% -7.0% 54% 54% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 54% -14.0%
10% -15.9% 54% -22.2%
15% -24.1% 46% -29.7%
20% -31.5% 32% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$3 +85%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -94%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $52 −$14 -27%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $21 +$8 +37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$13 +169%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $26 +$12 +46%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$44 +228%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 +$15 +71%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$27 +137%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$8 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 43h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 43h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $15 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $22 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $29 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $21 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $6 7d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $21 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 97¢ $10 10d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $38 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $38 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 66¢ $26 10d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 97¢ $26 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $6 10d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 10d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.12 · official $5.12 (match) · 51 history records