trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 24¢ | $40 | $38 | −$2 (-6%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $20 | $22 | +$2 (+10%) |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $1 | −$14 (-94%) |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $1 | −$3 (-75%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $11 | $0 | −$11 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $30 | +$5 | +16% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $7 | +$71 | +992% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $7 | −$7 | -97% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$12 | +114% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 11 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 | Dec 09 | $271 | −$271 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 | Dec 09 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 | Dec 07 | $11 | +$17 | +162% |
| Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs | Dec 07 | $628 | −$317 | -50% |
| Warriors vs. Cavaliers | Dec 07 | $950 | −$322 | -34% |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 06 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? | Dec 06 | $6 | +$5 | +78% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | Nov 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Nov 05 | $4 | +$1 | +35% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 04 | $2 | −$1 | -48% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +103.1% | +83.8% | 43% | 43% | +6.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +103.1% | +83.8% | 43% | 43% | +6.8% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +103.1% | +83.8% | 43% | 43% | +6.8% |
| all | 20 | +18.5% | +7.3% | 35% | 30% | -50.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.3% | 30% | -50.2% |
| 10% | -3.0% | 25% | -54.9% |
| 15% | -12.4% | 20% | -59.3% |
| 20% | -21.0% | 20% | -63.3% |