Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2332…3fc5 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$469 (-1%) realized −$516 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$785per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$367est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,111
7 days−$2,292
14 days−$1,330
30 days−$861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$5,421
sports 48% +$4,607
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -19.9% -27.6% 41% 30% -19.5%
≤30d 36 -12.5% -20.9% 39% 31% -12.2%
≤90d 36 -12.5% -20.9% 39% 31% -12.2%
all 36 -12.5% -20.9% 39% 31% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 31% -12.2%
10% -28.4% 17% -20.6%
15% ← realistic here -35.4% 14% -28.2%
20% -41.7% 11% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,289) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$511 vs −$364 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized−$516
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$367
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage23d
Avg bet$785
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $397 $544 +$147 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $387 $337 −$49 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $146 $118 −$28 (-19%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $24 $1 −$23 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $326 +$24 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,366 −$1,351 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $244 −$242 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,419 +$632 +26%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 −$35 -92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,179 −$2,124 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,741 +$632 +36%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $269 +$36 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $520 +$319 +61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $117 −$7 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,805 −$3,433 -90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,211 +$3,534 +110%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,289 +$244 +19%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $193 −$188 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $329 +$60 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 −$16 -69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $497 −$17 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $99 −$2 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $519 +$41 +8%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $115 +$18 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,199 −$385 -32%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $171 −$15 -9%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $286 −$39 -14%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $661 +$362 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,249 −$6 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $17 −$2 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $40 −$5 -11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,731 +$782 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,256 −$131 -10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $668 +$469 +70%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $3 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $124 32m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 38m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $177 40m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 43m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 58m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $124 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $24 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $16 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $119 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $78 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $125 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $125 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $125 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $125 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $125 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $125 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $125 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $125 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $98 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $125 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $125 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $326 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.33 · official $941.87 · 874 history records