Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2336…9e65 other 262 markets active 11h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 236d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,188 (-1%) realized −$5,211 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate63%161W / 96L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,201per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$11,293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,441
14 days+$3,798
30 days+$4,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$5,432
sports 24% −$1,347
world 19% −$11,563
tech 10% +$3,729
crypto 9% −$1,424
politics 9% −$1,029
economics 5% +$446
finance 0% +$16
weather 0% +$116
culture 0% +$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 70% 10% -5.3%
≤30d 23 +1.4% -8.2% 78% 9% -6.8%
≤90d 62 +0.5% -9.1% 66% 23% -8.7%
all 257 +0.6% -9.0% 63% 24% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 24% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 17% -19.0%
15% -25.6% 11% -26.8%
20% -32.9% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,145) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$317 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$11,293
Realized−$5,211
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses161 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions5
Markets (closed)257 / 262
History coverage237d ⚠
Avg bet$2,201
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9,950 $9,985 +$35 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $964 $990 +$26 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $179 $185 +$6 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $167 $132 −$34 (-21%)
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool? Yes 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $23,649 −$343 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $14,263 +$1,379 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5,821 +$1,238 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $11,184 +$853 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $7,762 +$347 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $3,148 +$82 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $110 −$60 -54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $445 −$121 -27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $4,957 +$1 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1,566 +$65 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $7,836 +$164 +2%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $2,991 +$9 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $4,033 +$4 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9,083 +$18 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $56 −$21 -37%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28,767 +$183 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $4,805 +$195 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $5,879 +$115 +2%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $981 +$18 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $2,440 +$58 +2%
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? May 19 $42 +$38 +90%
Will Conor McGregor fight Charles Oliveira next? May 17 $280 +$22 +8%
Will Conor McGregor fight Max Holloway next? May 17 $472 −$449 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $570 +$30 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 14 $1,994 +$6 +0%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 08 $299 −$137 -46%
MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 02 $87 +$1 +1%
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch? May 02 $608 −$104 -17%
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 02 $374 +$146 +39%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 02 $2,610 +$623 +24%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 02 $2,719 +$407 +15%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 02 $31,099 +$486 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 02 $7,412 +$874 +12%
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch? May 01 $674 +$135 +20%
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch? May 01 $82 −$3 -4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,035 −$775 -75%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $234 −$34 -14%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $162 +$85 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $1,110 −$272 -24%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 28 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $25,610 −$12 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $24,362 −$61 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $22,960 −$840 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $21,340 −$42 -0%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $3,567 +$340 +10%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $1,429 +$318 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,950 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,805 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,995 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 79¢ $459 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 79¢ $333 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 85¢ $769 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 85¢ $34 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 85¢ $27 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 85¢ $19 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 85¢ $168 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 84¢ $68 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 85¢ $386 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 87¢ $289 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 84¢ $734 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 84¢ $71 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 13¢ $50 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 33¢ $323 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $413 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $340 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,292.71 · official $11,292.71 (match) · 3500 history records