Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
23 0x2337…f504 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 42L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% +$4
world 21% +$7
other 11% −$4
sports 2% +$7
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +1.2% -8.4% 45% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 51% 3% -9.4%
all 90 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 42
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage455d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $183 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $164 +$2 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $148 −$6 -4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $170 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $169 +$1 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $190 +$4 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $76 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $346 +$6 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $9 +$3 +35%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,277 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $158 −$5 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $65 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $158 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $47 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 18 $16 +$1 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $4 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $222 −$1 -1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $151 −$4 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $2,136 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $137 +$4 +3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $1,064 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 12 $27 $0 +2%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 16 $7 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $8 $0 -2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $1 $0 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +46%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 12 $8 $0 -5%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $184 37m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $183 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $166 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $164 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $12 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $130 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $148 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $170 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $18 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $153 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $135 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $73 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $39 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $13 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $27 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 318 history records