Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2338…27f6 sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$624 (-11%) realized −$632 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%84W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$484
14 days−$529
30 days−$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$660
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -46.4% -51.5% 26% 26% -50.8%
≤30d 83 -25.3% -32.4% 36% 36% -32.3%
≤90d 180 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 46% -20.1%
all 180 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 46% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -20.1%
10% -27.6% 46% -27.7%
15% -34.6% 46% -34.7%
20% -41.0% 42% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$632
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses84 / 96
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)180 / 181
History coverage63d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) REKONIX 40¢ 48¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $41 +$70 +172%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 21 $39 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 21 $41 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $41 +$30 +73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 20 $41 +$50 +124%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $35 +$26 +74%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: ART (-1.5) vs X-CAST (+1.5) Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $41 +$36 +89%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $40 +$25 +62%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 16 $40 −$10 -25%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $61 +$44 +73%
Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 15 $41 +$63 +155%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $41 +$67 +165%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $41 +$48 +119%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $41 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: IGZIST vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $41 −$40 -99%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $41 −$40 -99%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $41 +$32 +79%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 03 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 03 $81 −$80 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 03 $41 +$31 +77%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $41 −$3 -8%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $41 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) BUY REKONIX 40¢ $41 1h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY Pixel Lumina 23¢ $41 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 53¢ $41 9h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 47¢ $1 24h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 42¢ $38 26h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 56¢ $41 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $41 47h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu BUY OG 57¢ $41 2d
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 33¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 35¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $62 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $35 3d
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) BUY REKONIX 44¢ $41 3d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 41¢ $41 3d
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 37¢ $7 4d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $41 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $81 4d
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 37¢ $34 4d
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 45¢ $41 4d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 40¢ $41 4d
Map Handicap: ART (-1.5) vs X-CAST (+1.5) BUY ARETE 41¢ $41 4d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $41 5d
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re BUY FUSION 57¢ $41 5d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 52¢ $41 5d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 36¢ $41 5d
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 47¢ $41 5d
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 61¢ $40 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $41 6d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 56¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.85 · official $47.85 (match) · 290 history records