Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
23 0x233c…45c3 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$281 (+48%) realized +$281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$103
crypto 36% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.7% -5.2% 57% 57% +34.5%
≤30d 7 +4.7% -5.2% 57% 57% +34.5%
≤90d 7 +4.7% -5.2% 57% 57% +34.5%
all 7 +4.7% -5.2% 57% 57% +34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 57% +34.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 57% +21.6%
15% -22.6% 43% +9.8%
20% -30.2% 29% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$12 · ×6.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.08 per $1 lost it wins $9.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $373 +$103 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$31 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$18 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $97 +$164 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $428 58m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 24¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 24¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 24¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records