Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x2341…3535 crypto 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 727d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18,394 (+55%) realized +$18,329 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%55W / 84L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$21,726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 727d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$3,932
other 29% −$91
politics 4% −$321
economics 4% +$99
sports 1% −$115
world 1% −$168
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -54.3% -58.7% 29% 29% -62.5%
≤30d 7 -54.3% -58.7% 29% 29% -62.5%
≤90d 8 -46.4% -51.5% 38% 25% -39.3%
all 139 -8.3% -17.0% 40% 39% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 39% +3.5%
10% -25.0% 37% -6.4%
15% -32.2% 35% -15.5%
20% -38.9% 27% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$69 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

727d coverage
Net worth$21,726
Realized+$18,329
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses55 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 142
History coverage727d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 22¢ 100¢ $4,197 $19,059 +$14,862 (+354%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,563 $2,621 +$57 (+2%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 94¢ $31 $47 +$16 (+50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $72 +$28 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $7 +$6 +80%
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 20 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Apr 22 $166 +$15 +9%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? Mar 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Feb 08 $516 −$516 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Feb 05 $1,136 +$543 +48%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in February? Feb 02 $560 +$440 +79%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $1,000 +$156 +16%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Jan 29 $1,000 +$550 +55%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 26 $168 −$168 -100%
US recession in 2025? Jan 02 $54 +$46 +85%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $279 +$221 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $1,412 +$153 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $3,926 +$2,153 +55%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Dec 29 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Dec 29 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 04 $639 +$846 +133%
Will Kimmel say "Autism" during return show on September 23? Sep 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? Aug 03 $2,944 −$268 -9%
Will Ethereum close above $3600 on July 31? Jul 24 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? Jul 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jul 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2800 in June? Jul 02 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in May? Jun 01 $38 +$121 +317%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30? May 25 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 25 $670 −$670 -100%
Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election? May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in May? May 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? Apr 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90k in April? Apr 23 $2,146 −$630 -29%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $3 +$7 +233%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 19 $391 −$391 -100%
Solana all time high by June 30? Feb 18 $320 +$1,184 +371%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday? Feb 09 $64 +$36 +56%
Solana all time high by January 31? Feb 03 $7 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Feb 03 $25 +$23 +92%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $210 +$268 +127%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $64 +$539 +846%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $51 2h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 31h
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 34¢ $104 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 105d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL No 25¢ $1,017 108d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 109d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 109d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 109d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 109d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 109d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 109d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $8 135d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $27 136d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $105 136d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $65 137d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $32 137d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $33 137d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $27 137d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $40 137d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $40 137d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $853 138d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $3,418 138d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $140 138d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 19¢ $603 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,726.43 · official $21,726.43 (match) · 525 history records