Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x2347…71f7 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$18
politics 37% −$19
sports 5% +$70
economics 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 +1.3% -8.3% 5% 5% -9.6%
all 129 +2.3% -7.5% 9% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 9% -9.5%
10% -16.3% 9% -18.1%
15% -24.4% 8% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1 · ×12.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage116d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $355 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $231 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $293 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $243 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $813 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $306 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 20 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $289 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $315 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $310 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $296 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $482 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $203 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $545 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $315 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $328 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 20 $254 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $261 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $265 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $324 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $39 3h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 8h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 42h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 42h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 11d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 11d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 21d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $293 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $293 24d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 24d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $214 27d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $243 27d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $243 28d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $217 28d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $217 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records