Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x234b…f36d sports 764 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,888 (+3%) realized +$2,314 · open +$574
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%458W / 283L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day113.2pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$4,292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$776
7 days+$483
14 days+$122
30 days+$975
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$23
sports 43% +$1,690
world 0% −$115
weather 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +31.0% +18.5% 66% 58% -2.7%
≤30d 741 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 52% -8.4%
≤90d 741 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 52% -8.4%
all 741 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 52% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 43% -17.2%
15% -18.6% 34% -25.2%
20% -26.5% 26% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$56 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$4,292
Realized+$2,314
Unrealized+$574
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses458 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions23
Markets (closed)741 / 764
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day113.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 741 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Cabo Verde 78¢ 96¢ $1,356 $1,666 +$309 (+23%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 82¢ 96¢ $1,256 $1,481 +$225 (+18%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5 Under 88¢ 93¢ $260 $274 +$15 (+6%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 45¢ 76¢ $140 $238 +$98 (+69%)
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Fenerbahce 78¢ 79¢ $204 $207 +$3 (+1%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 50¢ $167 $112 −$55 (-33%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Under 96¢ 98¢ $101 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 64¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 65¢ 90¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 20¢ $13 $29 +$16 (+119%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Fabian Marozsan 45¢ 40¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Spread: Fenerbahce (-4.5) Fenerbahce 59¢ 65¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-31? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-31? No 77¢ 56¢ $9 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 22¢ 26¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Scotland 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Leo Raquillet 30¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 53¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Flavio Cobolli 44¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5 Over 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-94%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 5.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $70 +$133 +188%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $5 +$6 +120%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $91 −$90 -98%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$4 +16%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $25 +$24 +93%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $58 +$9 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $46 −$46 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 +$58 +1845%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $54 +$3 +5%
Will Stade Francais win? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
Sandnes Ulf vs. Stroemmen IF: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $20 +$13 +67%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Northamptonshire Steelbacks vs Derbyshire Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $7 −$6 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $276 −$273 -99%
Spread: Keflavik IF (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $14 +$9 +67%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $388 −$382 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-2.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 13 $108 −$106 -98%
Will Drogheda United FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $124 +$13 +11%
Will COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 +$12 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $14 +$13 +93%
Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $447 +$22 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +17%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $20 +$27 +134%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $2 +$2 +70%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $72 +$6 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $27 +$8 +31%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $3 +$4 +124%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $59 +$134 +226%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $72 +$13 +18%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 +$6 +51%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 +$8 +474%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$10 +180%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $166 +$121 +73%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $829 +$21 +3%
Will Angola vs. Central African Republic end in a draw? Jun 09 $21 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 78¢ $2 32m
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 78¢ $197 32m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $77 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $2 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $3 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $19 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $8 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $12 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $29 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $29 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $19 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $45 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $31 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $14 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $39 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $9 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $24 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $3 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,292.22 · official $4,291.23 (match) · 3500 history records