Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

23 0x2350…d717 other 6 markets active 4d ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$13 (-28%) realized −$13 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip

Net edge-50%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-50.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-65.4%	-68.7%	33%	0%	-47.8%
≤30d	4	-45.3%	-50.5%	50%	25%	-44.8%
≤90d	4	-45.3%	-50.5%	50%	25%	-44.8%
all	4	-45.3%	-50.5%	50%	25%	-44.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.5%	25%	-44.8%
10%	-55.2%	0%	-50.1%
15%	-59.6%	0%	-54.9%
20%	-63.5%	0%	-59.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -39% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.07 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized−$13

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage12d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$6	$7	+$1 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	13¢	$4	$3	−$1 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-96%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 13	$19	+$1	+4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Jun 01	$2	$0	+15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$4	4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	SELL Yes	87¢	$19	4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	81¢	$19	14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	SELL Yes	67¢	$2	15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	BUY Yes	55¢	$2	16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.94 · official $9.94 (match) · 9 history records