Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x2350…570e sports 849 markets active 0h ago coverage 253d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 252d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,640 (+1%) realized +$2,661 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate65%536W / 284L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$511est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$3
14 days−$332
30 days−$826
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$247
other 16% +$2,203
politics 1% +$40
crypto 0% −$44
finance 0% +$1
world 0% −$136
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +26.3% +14.2% 58% 27% -9.5%
≤30d 192 -0.6% -10.1% 67% 18% -10.0%
≤90d 679 -13.5% -21.7% 62% 19% -11.2%
all 820 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 22% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 22% -8.7%
10% -21.2% 12% -17.4%
15% -28.8% 8% -25.4%
20% -35.8% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$39 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$2,661
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses536 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$511
Open positions28
Markets (closed)820 / 849
History coverage253d ⚠
Avg bet$376
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 820 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 87¢ 94¢ $86 $93 +$7 (+9%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Australia 96¢ 96¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 28¢ 24¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-19%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 72¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 86¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $6 −$4 -71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -73%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$23 -56%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $20 +$64 +312%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,004 +$5 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$45 +111%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$9 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $200 −$40 -20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$37 -37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $92 −$32 -35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 −$18 -9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $467 +$9 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $15 −$6 -38%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $42 +$5 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $817 +$129 +16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +1567%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $772 +$4 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $351 +$45 +13%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1,576 +$23 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $58 −$6 -10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $120 −$61 -51%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $1,384 −$70 -5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1,013 −$5 -0%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1,047 +$9 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $203 +$37 +18%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $51 −$4 -7%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $122 −$120 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $218 −$10 -4%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $25 +$1 +4%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 10 $223 −$105 -47%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 10 $812 +$28 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 95¢ $40 13m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 96¢ $50 35m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 96¢ $1 37m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 79¢ $30 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 85¢ $10 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 85¢ $5 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $20 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland SELL Ireland 0¢ $1 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 3¢ $5 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 98¢ $1 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 98¢ $84 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.44 · official $238.66 (match) · 3500 history records