Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2351…931a crypto 1402 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (159 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$767 (+8%) realized +$767 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%830W / 702L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day158.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,299
7 days−$979
14 days−$851
30 days−$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (159 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1116 -13.7% -21.9% 49% 45% -21.6%
≤30d 1532 -5.2% -14.2% 54% 50% -16.4%
≤90d 1532 -5.2% -14.2% 54% 50% -16.4%
all 1532 -5.2% -14.2% 54% 50% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 50% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 45% -24.4%
15% -29.9% 38% -31.7%
20% -36.8% 30% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$767
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses830 / 702
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1532 / 1402
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day158.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 62¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.51 · official $4.51 (match) · 3500 history records