Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2356…6104 crypto 755 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$69 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%523W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$163
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +5.0% -5.0% 83% 70% -3.1%
≤30d 478 -2.2% -11.6% 77% 64% -11.2%
≤90d 755 -3.0% -12.2% 69% 60% -11.1%
all 755 -3.0% -12.2% 69% 60% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 60% -11.1%
10% -20.6% 39% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 25% -27.4%
20% -35.3% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses523 / 232
Open positions1
Markets (closed)755 / 755
History coverage69d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 755 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$10 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $18 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $17 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $16 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $13 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 1671 history records