Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x2359…b0e6 politics 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$12
politics 41% −$13
sports 5% +$42
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 +2.5% -7.2% 3% 3% -9.5%
all 112 +5.8% -4.2% 9% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 7% -9.5%
10% -13.4% 7% -18.1%
15% -21.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -29.4% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×11.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage118d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $233 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $182 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $253 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $241 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $253 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $235 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $182 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $429 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $209 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $237 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 21 $212 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $432 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $441 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $219 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 17d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $188 26d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $188 27d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $233 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $233 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $250 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $250 33d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $216 33d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $216 35d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $175 35d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $175 38d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $205 39d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 46d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $208 46d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $208 46d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 46d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 47d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $85 47d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 47d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 47d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 48d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.95 · official $93.95 (match) · 319 history records