Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2359…f376 sports 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$741 (-13%) realized −$721 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate37%52W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$32
14 days−$65
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$328
politics 28% −$362
world 14% +$232
other 12% −$212
finance 4% −$111
culture 1% −$29
tech 1% −$50
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.6% -67.1% 25% 25% -71.7%
≤30d 29 -35.5% -41.7% 34% 28% -19.3%
≤90d 92 -56.1% -60.3% 28% 18% -44.2%
all 139 -27.3% -34.2% 37% 27% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 27% -24.4%
10% -40.5% 19% -31.6%
15% -46.3% 15% -38.2%
20% -51.5% 12% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$721
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses52 / 87
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)139 / 145
History coverage242d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $80 $87 +$7 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+96%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 65¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$29 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $606 −$23 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $80 +$4 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$12 +38%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? May 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 23 $51 −$30 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 23 $154 −$100 -65%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? May 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? May 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $71 +$32 +46%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? May 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? May 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? May 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? May 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $100 −$28 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $10 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 31¢ $10 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 12d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $50 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 14d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 14d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 16d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 17d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 17d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 18d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $583 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.27 · official $141.27 (match) · 490 history records