Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x235e…5673 sports 393 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26,167 (-18%) realized −$24,546 · open −$1,621
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%127W / 218L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$1,339est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$19,728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$16,671
other 26% +$2,388
world 17% −$7,627
crypto 9% −$8,331
politics 6% +$2,295
economics 1% +$453
tech 1% −$158
finance 1% −$435
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +66.2% +50.4% 42% 42% +59.8%
≤30d 64 +21.8% +10.2% 42% 41% +15.9%
≤90d 345 -3.9% -13.1% 37% 37% -3.8%
all 345 -3.9% -13.1% 37% 37% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 37% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 35% -13.0%
15% -29.0% 34% -21.4%
20% -36.0% 32% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$233 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$19,728
Realized−$24,546
Unrealized−$1,621
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses127 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,339
Open positions38
Markets (closed)345 / 393
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$380
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $3,874 $2,783 −$1,091 (-28%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 77¢ $2,355 $2,695 +$340 (+14%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $2,479 $2,488 +$8 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $1,380 $1,200 −$180 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $821 $922 +$101 (+12%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 42¢ 43¢ $847 $873 +$25 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $699 $868 +$170 (+24%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 85¢ $730 $850 +$120 (+16%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $1,132 $846 −$286 (-25%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $948 $780 −$168 (-18%)
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $744 $773 +$29 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $600 $565 −$35 (-6%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $480 $485 +$5 (+1%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $550 $465 −$85 (-15%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 59¢ 54¢ $400 $363 −$37 (-9%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 23¢ 60¢ $121 $321 +$201 (+166%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $290 $311 +$21 (+7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 33¢ 30¢ $330 $295 −$35 (-11%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? Yes 26¢ 13¢ $533 $270 −$263 (-49%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 43¢ $330 $258 −$72 (-22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $178 $235 +$57 (+32%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 55¢ 94¢ $96 $164 +$68 (+71%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 30¢ 19¢ $255 $161 −$93 (-37%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No 29¢ 40¢ $85 $116 +$31 (+36%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $372 $116 −$256 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $204 +$485 +238%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $846 +$594 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- Jun 18 $204 +$396 +194%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,038 −$1,012 -98%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Jun 17 $766 +$147 +19%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $186 −$182 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $245 −$240 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $235 −$232 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-0 Jun 17 $512 +$2,119 +414%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,030 +$1,986 +98%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $307 +$1,332 +433%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $754 −$740 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $239 −$235 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $315 −$308 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,442 +$951 +66%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $296 +$704 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $225 +$601 +267%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $653 −$640 -98%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $285 +$215 +75%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $572 −$560 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3,097 +$3,869 +125%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco Jun 15 $51 +$643 +1251%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,986 −$2,664 -89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,274 −$1,149 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3,616 −$3,402 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $387 −$380 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $515 −$511 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,502 +$19,968 +570%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $188 +$236 +125%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $454 +$232 +51%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $7,325 −$322 -4%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 10 $712 +$445 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $8,923 +$509 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $304 +$296 +97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $385 −$384 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $390 −$390 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $191 +$209 +109%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 08 $1,147 +$399 +35%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $512 −$512 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $220 +$84 +38%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $898 +$1,102 +123%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $806 −$795 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? AND Brazil t BUY 69¢ $303 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $846 4h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 10h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 11h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 13h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 19h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 19h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 19h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 24h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 24h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 24h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 24h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 25h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY 9¢ $1,027 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U BUY 32¢ $5,102 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea R BUY 35¢ $1,019 30h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 34h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 37h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,727.88 · official $20,028.09 · 3500 history records