Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x2363…b0e8 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-0%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%135W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$43
14 days−$1
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$675
sports 38% +$665
crypto 1% −$52
world 1% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 62% 62% +5.1%
≤30d 29 +3.7% -6.1% 66% 48% -6.9%
≤90d 216 +0.1% -9.5% 56% 53% -11.8%
all 239 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 54% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 54% -9.7%
10% -16.1% 51% -18.3%
15% -24.2% 47% -26.2%
20% -31.7% 38% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$113 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses135 / 104
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage102d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $41 −$41 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $41 +$67 +165%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $33 +$21 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $41 +$64 +158%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $44 −$43 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $45 +$58 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $83 −$82 -99%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $81 +$42 +52%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $81 +$114 +140%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $82 +$60 +73%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $81 −$80 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $87 −$86 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $81 +$59 +73%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $90 +$63 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $90 +$78 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $86 −$84 -99%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 02 $81 +$73 +90%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $91 +$42 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $61 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $42 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $29 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $27 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $31 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $24 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $28 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $29 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records