Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2363…ed78 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$160 (+5%) realized +$268 · open −$108
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$40
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 33% -7.3%
≤30d 38 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 39% -5.3%
≤90d 38 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 39% -5.3%
all 38 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 39% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 39% -5.3%
10% -18.5% 32% -14.4%
15% -26.4% 26% -22.7%
20% -33.6% 21% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$38 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$268
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage10d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group A ex-MANA eSports 78¢ 73¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner ex-MANA eSports 66¢ 50¢ $122 $92 −$30 (-25%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aimhaus (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group B Aimhaus 17¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $51 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 28 $78 +$62 +80%
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) Jun 28 $115 +$90 +78%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 28 $70 −$69 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 25 $101 +$29 +29%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $76 −$2 -2%
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 25 $171 +$39 +23%
ITF Kamen: Ekaterina Kazionova vs Victoria Pohle Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $117 +$8 +7%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Zeynep Sonmez vs. Sara Bejlek: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$1 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $104 +$105 +101%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 24 $8 −$1 -16%
Taylor Fritz vs. Jan Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$2 -7%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Deren Yigin vs Samir Hamza Reguig Jun 24 $148 +$83 +57%
Grzegorzewski vs. Kamrowski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $88 −$18 -20%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore Jun 23 $28 +$19 +68%
ITF Kayseri: Ayline Samardzic vs Julia Khramtsova Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Tirante vs. Fearnley: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $101 −$5 -5%
Gabi Boitan vs. Denis Yevseyev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -5%
Set 1 Winner: Ribecai vs McDonald Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $90 −$89 -98%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $156 +$64 +41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $30 +$97 +322%
Kecmanovic vs. Medjedovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $51 −$2 -5%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $76 −$21 -28%
Iva Jovic vs. Xinyu Wang: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $29 −$1 -5%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Midori Castillo Meza Jun 20 $158 +$129 +81%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $112 −$110 -98%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mickael Kaouk vs Melios Efstathiou Jun 20 $101 +$21 +21%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $100 +$16 +16%
ITF Dinard: Carla Grignac vs Margaux Maquet Jun 19 $101 +$21 +20%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi Jun 19 $100 +$64 +64%
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
ITF Milano: Viktor Durasovic vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 18 $20 +$2 +8%
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-MANA eSports 66¢ $123 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P BUY ex-MANA eSports 78¢ $201 1h
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aimhaus (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group B BUY Aimhaus 22¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aimhaus (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group B BUY Aimhaus 21¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aimhaus (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group B BUY Aimhaus 16¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aimhaus (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group B BUY Aimhaus 14¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL Omega 100¢ $140 1h
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) SELL OlyBet SB 100¢ $205 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY Omega 55¢ $78 4h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY OlyBet SB 45¢ $19 4h
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 64¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY OlyBet SB 28¢ $51 4h
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 55¢ $14 4h
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 49¢ $51 4h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 55¢ $51 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 77¢ $101 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 72¢ $2 3d
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Celia Anson Sanchez SELL Amelie Van Impe 99¢ $210 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 35¢ $72 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 35¢ $76 3d
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Amelie Van Impe 80¢ $10 3d
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Amelie Van Impe 78¢ $101 3d
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Amelie Van Impe 85¢ $60 3d
ITF Kamen: Ekaterina Kazionova vs Victoria Pohle BUY Ekaterina Kazionova 45¢ $41 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $126 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $17 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $51 3d
Zeynep Sonmez vs. Sara Bejlek: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 50¢ $29 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $208 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.05 · official $282.90 · 92 history records