Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x236a…1d5a
crypto · 63 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$17 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses35 / 25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage110d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 24? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? No 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Gold Card" or "Trump card" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +41%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 04 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 04 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 03 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 19 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 10 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 26 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 26 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 26 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 25 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 25 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 25 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 25 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 25 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 25 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 25 $15 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 25 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 25 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 25 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 25 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 25 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 25 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 25 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$16
politics 12% −$3
other 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? SELL Up 99¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? BUY Up 89¢ $1 40d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 40d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 40d
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca BUY No 2¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 67% -0.4%
≤90d 19 -15.7% -23.7% 53% 37% -21.7%
all 60 -8.3% -17.0% 58% 35% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 35% -19.5%
10% -25.0% 23% -27.2%
15% -32.2% 17% -34.3%
20% -38.9% 12% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.50 · official $5.50 (match) · 166 history records