Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x236e…338a other 429 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$269 (+4%) realized +$285 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%246W / 163L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$39
14 days+$79
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$23
sports 36% +$260
finance 5% +$8
world 4% −$8
politics 2% −$8
crypto 1% +$11
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +13.8% +3.0% 85% 67% -7.1%
≤30d 105 +6.3% -3.9% 72% 65% +1.5%
≤90d 291 -1.8% -11.1% 65% 59% -5.7%
all 409 +1.3% -8.4% 60% 56% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 56% -6.0%
10% -17.1% 46% -15.0%
15% -25.1% 37% -23.2%
20% -32.5% 27% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses246 / 163
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions20
Markets (closed)409 / 429
History coverage165d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $96 $118 +$22 (+23%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$4 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 +$6 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$5 +23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $10 +$9 +93%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 07 $10 +$13 +133%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 07 $20 +$4 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $10 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $20 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $50 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $50 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $50 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 68¢ $20 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $20 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $20 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $20 16h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $50 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $20 36h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $100 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $20 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.77 · official $759.92 (match) · 760 history records