Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x2373…ce8b other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
other 37% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.0%
all 24 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.14 per $1 lost it wins $4.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage449d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $85 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $46 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated? Apr 02 $23 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $12 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $31 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $42 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 24h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $2 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $36 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $39 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $46 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 32d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 32d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 32d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 78¢ $45 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 79¢ $46 34d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 34d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 34d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $4 35d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $2 35d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.62 · official $46.66 (match) · 66 history records